Key Points:
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ICPAC outlook
Kenya has a 45% chance of wetter-than-normal March–May rains, with central & western areas most affected.
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Farmers adjusting
Early rains have disrupted the usual planting calendar after the Jan–Feb heat
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Mixed season ahead
Expect warm temps + alternating wet/dry spells; coast drier, parts of Marsabit may get ~300mm
According to ICPAC (IGAD Climate Prediction and Applications Centre), in collaboration with other notable institutions that track climate patterns in Africa (NMHSs, WMO), there is a 45% chance of heavier-than-expected rainfall in Kenya. Central western Kenya will be the most affected region by this heavier rainfall.
Farmers in haste as rains kick in early
Ordinarily, Kenyans expect extreme heat (as evidenced by the sweltering heat of the January and early February period) until early to mid-March, when the planting season kicks in in anticipation of the long rains. However, with the recent heavy downpour across different parts of the country, the pattern has thrown farmers off course, as most depend on the rainy season to plan their planting season.
Weather outlook for the March to May (MAM) rainfall season
Data from ICPAC clearly show that rainfall during the March to May period will appear as follows.
Rainfall
- 45% probability of higher than normal rainfall in the western parts of Kenya
- Drier than normal rain is expected in the coastal parts of Kenya
- Earlier onset of rains (already happening) in major parts of the country
- Dry spells are still expected in areas that are predicted to receive near-normal or above-normal rainfall, and wet spells may occur in areas forecasted to receive near-normal or below-normal rainfall.
Temperature
- Warmer-than-average temperatures in most regions of Kenya.
IGAD Cluster II: Marsabit and Borana region
The March to May rainfall is expected to bring about 300 mm to northern and eastern Marsabit, including Godoma, Bultiye, Sololo, Uran, and parts of Bubissa, Maikona, and Dukana, on the Kenyan side of IGAD cluster II.
Climate Prediction and Applications Centre
The 5th Sub-Regional Climate Outlook Forum (Sub-COF5) theme is Advancing climate services, building community resilience, and contributing to sustainable development and relies on the information provided by ICPAC to plan better. The primary aim is to utilise this weather forecast as a guide. With this in mind, it is easier to provide the required platforms and resources for pastoralist communities.Â
